Washington, February 23, 2010
Although the economy has been growing lately, fallout from the recent recession continued to negatively impact commercial real estate sectors in the fourth quarter, but there is hope for some improvement next year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said commercial real estate almost always lags the economy. “Because of the lingering impact from the deep recession over the past two years, vacancy rates will trend higher and many commercial property owners will need to make rent concessions,” he said.
“With the job market expected to turn for the better later this year, we’ll see rising demand for office and warehouse space, but that isn’t likely before 2011,” Yun said. “At the same time, improved consumer confidence would help sustain the retail sector and encourage more people to enter the rental market.”
Yun notes that commercial vacancy rates remain high in most market areas and are depressing rents.
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 700 local market experts,1 suggests a flattening level of business activity in upcoming quarters with 55 percent of members expecting the market to improve in the second quarter.
The SIOR index rose 0.2 percentage point to 35.5 in the fourth quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the first gain following 11 consecutive quarterly declines. Although some indicators show that a decline in commercial property values is beginning to flatten, 86 percent of respondents report prices are below replacement costs.
Nearly nine in 10 survey participants said new commercial development is virtually nonexistent in their market areas, and rent concessions are reported almost everywhere.
An independent survey earlier this month showed a couple dozen banks are willing to expand commercial credit this year, which is critical. The lending expansion is aided by the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, which is encouraging issuance of commercial mortgage-backed bonds. In addition, regulators are prodding lenders to extend terms for many existing commercial loans.
“We have a long way to go for satisfactory levels of commercial credit, but these are important first steps,” Yun said. “Given that about $1.4 trillion in commercial debt will come due over the next three years, more extensive action is needed and the Fed needs to more actively help resuscitate commercial mortgage-backed securities. The credit improvement will mean more commercial property sales in 2010, even some at deeply discounted prices.”
Looking at the overall market, commercial vacancy rates generally will stay at elevated levels, according to NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK.2 The NAR forecast for four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Office Market
With a lot of sublease space currently on the market, vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to rise from 16.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter of this year; the longer term outlook is for vacancies to average 17.4 percent in 2011.
Annual office rent is projected to decline 7.2 percent in 2010, following a drop of 12.7 percent last year. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be a negative 27.3 million square feet in 2010.
Industrial Market
There is proportionately less industrial sublease space on the market than in the office sector, but obsolescence remains a factor. Industrial vacancy rates will probably rise from 13.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 14.9 percent in the closing quarter of 2010; they could average 14.5 percent next year.
Annual industrial rent is likely to fall 9.6 percent this year, after declining 10.9 percent in 2009. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is seen at a negative 93.5 million square feet in 2010.
Retail Market
Retail vacancy rates are expected to edge up from 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 12.7 percent in the same period of this year, and may hold at that level in 2011.
Average retail rent is forecast to decline 2.4 percent in 2010, following a drop of 4.0 percent in 2009. Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets should be a negative 3.4 million square feet this year.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is poised to gain from a rise in household formation. Multifamily vacancy rates are likely to decline from 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, and possibly edge down to 6.1 percent next year.
Average rent is projected to decline 3.4 percent this year, following a decline 3.6 percent in 2009. Multifamily net absorption is expected to be 115,000 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
More than 81,000 NAR and institute affiliate members offer commercial brokerage services.The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
While pundits search for signs of a real-estate market bottom, developer Todd Glaser found a bottom-dollar price for a 3,368-square-foot building on the edge of Miami's Design District.
Glaser, who helped lead redevelopment of the area in the early 1990s, said the $325,000 purchase at 4111 N. Miami Ave. was a no-brainer.
Others in the industry think so as well.
``In the Design District, $100 a foot sounds like a steal,'' said Duff Rubin, Coldwell Banker's director of commercial real estate in South Florida.
In the heart of the Design District, recent sales prices often run three to four times that, said Craig Robins, a design district pioneer and president, chief executive and chairman of Dacra, a real estate development company.
Glaser plans to renovate the North Miami Avenue property and lease it as a restaurant or retail space. Currently the building is marred by graffiti and its doors and windows are boarded up with plywood.
It was a cash sale because the building's poor condition made obtaining financing difficult, said Mauricio Zapata, a Chariff Realty Group associate who helped broker the sale.
Dacra bought the property in 1994 for $115,000, when Glaser was still working with the firm, and sold it to nonprofit One Art in 1999 for $250,000.
The Miami-Dade property appraiser listed the building's value at more than $1 million last year. Alex Prado, the director of One Art, said his organization had opportunities to sell the property before -- once for more than $700,000 during the real estate boom -- but that profit was never a motive in decision-making.
Recent development in the Design District has been dominated by Dacra, which bought a two-story building at 4141 NE Second Ave for around $16 million last fall.
Robins said he isn't surprised to hear of Glaser's renewed interest in the area.
Next door, construction is under way on a three-story building that will house the art collection of Carlos and Rosa de la Cruz. The de la Cruzes hope to open the museum-like structure to the public during Art Basel Miami Beach in December.
Robins said Glaser's new property will be ``anchored by one of the best art collections in the United States.''
Coldwell Banker's Rubin said the Design District has become increasingly appealing to restaurateurs because of lower rents compared to high-end areas like South Beach and because the customer base is local rather than seasonal.
``I have friends in the restaurant business and they all want to be there,'' he said.
Lyle Chariff, owner of Chariff Realty Group, said retail space in the Design District rents for about $45 per square foot, compared to $150 in South Beach.
Those are the economics that first drew Glaser to the Design District in the early 1990s. ``Prices were getting high; people were moving off the Beach,'' he said. ``The same cycle is starting again.''
But Rubin cautioned that bargain-basement real estate prices are putting downward pressure on rent prices. While he said the Design District may be less affected by the recession than other areas, it's not exempt.
``The market is soft,'' he said. ``There's never been a better time to be a tenant.''
Robins said Dacra has been able to lease most of the Design District space that it owns, though he said the recession has dampened growth in the area. Dacra, he said, keeps a tight rein on its lease prices to maintain the area's high-end image.
``We generally keep a higher-than-normal vacancy factor because we like to emphasize quality,'' he said.
One Art, the nonprofit group that sold the building to Glaser, had planned to turn it into an art and music studio for children. Prado said the group was only about $30,000 short of making the needed renovations when property taxes began to take their toll.
Because the building lacked a certificate of occupancy, the group didn't receive a tax exemption for its nonprofit status. In the end, One Art took out a mortgage on the property just to pay back taxes. ``We had to get that monkey off our back,'' Prado said. ``I never wanted to let go of that dream. For me to have sold it was like cutting off a part of me.''
Prado said One Art is now looking for a new location, perhaps in the Overtown area.
Meltdown 101: Commercial real estate in distressWASHINGTON – July 23, 2009 – The residential housing market went into a tailspin over a burst housing bubble and a whole lot of bad mortgages. The commercial real estate market has suffered a different sort of one-two punch.Between the recession and the financial crisis, many commercial property owners were left struggling, and many banks were stuck with troubled loans on everything from shopping malls and hotels to office buildings. Exposure to commercial real estate has fueled losses at major banks such as Morgan Stanley, which reported a second-quarter loss of more than $1.2 billion on Wednesday.Experts say prospects for a turnaround in the near future aren’t good, because the commercial real estate market’s fortunes depend largely on free-flowing credit markets and cranked up spending by businesses and consumers – neither of which economists expect will happen anytime soon.That means more commercial property loan defaults are likely, and that could mean trouble for the still-recovering U.S. banking system.Here are some questions and answers on the problems facing the commercial real estate market, and what they might mean for the rest of the U.S. economy.Q: What types of properties are considered commercial real estate?A: Generally, there are five categories: office space, which can include several floors of a skyscraper or a single room in small building; industrial, which encompasses warehouse and factory space; retail, which ranges from a small storefront in a shopping center or mall, to a big-box space used by a large retailer like Costco; apartment complexes, typically with more than four units; and hotels.Q: Who owns commercial property?A: Much of it is owned by big public companies known as real estate investment trusts, among other large institutions. Smaller, regional developers also own a lot of commercial property.Q: How does the commercial real estate market fit into to the U.S. economy?A: By some estimates, the commercial real estate sector helps support more than 9 million jobs and generates billions of dollars in taxes.When the economy is growing, businesses’ demand for space also grows. Consumers also tend to spend more, which boosts retailers and hotel operators, and stokes demand for more retail space.A healthy economy typically translates into more jobs, which helps fuel demand for apartments. When demand is up, landlords enjoy low vacancy rates and steady rental income, and are more able to hike rental rates.But when the economy slows or enters recession, as it did in the fall of 2007, the reverse happens. Businesses scale back their needs for office and industrial space and trim payrolls. People who lose their jobs may be forced into leaving their apartments. Retail chains see sales tumble as consumers rein in spending and may be forced to shutter locations or even go out of business.Q: How has the financial meltdown affected the commercial real estate market?A: Commercial property landlords face several problems due to the economy and financial crisis.The recession and rising unemployment have stifled demand for rental space, resulting in higher vacancy rates. Lenders have tightened underwriting standards, making it much harder for property owners to refinance and for would-be buyers to qualify for financing.Those factors are contributing to a dearth of sales, a spike in commercial loan defaults and falling property values.Q: What’s happened to the value of commercial real estate during the economic downturn?A: So far, commercial property values have declined as much as 45 percent off their peak in 2007, Richard Parkus, an analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities, recently told a congressional committee examining the danger posed by rising commercial property defaults.Q: Where are vacancy rates projected to go?A: Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services projects U.S. vacancy rates this year will hit 17.6 percent for office space, 11 percent for retail, 12.6 percent for industrial and 8.2 percent for apartments. Two years ago, the vacancy rate for was 12.6 percent for office space, 7.2 percent for retail, 9.4 percent for industrial and 5.7 percent for apartments.Q: How do rising vacancies hurt owners?A: When vacancy rates rise, properties generate less income for landlords – a problem because the amount of income a commercial property generates after maintenance and other costs is a major factor in its market value.It’s also a key consideration by lenders when an owner seeks to refinance, which is something commercial real estate developers often have to do to manage their debt load. A lender might be concerned that a high vacancy rate is a sign that the property might have trouble generating revenue, and might be hesitant to offer a new mortgage.Q: What has happens when commercial property owners aren’t making money, and can’t refinance their loans?A: Often, if they can’t find a buyer to take the property off their hands or renegotiate an extension with the lender, they end up losing the property to foreclosure. Some, however, have filed for bankruptcy protection.Q: What impact could rising commercial property defaults have on the U.S. banking system?A: It could deliver a serious hit to the bottom line at banks that make commercial real estate loans.Delinquency rates on such loans have doubled in the past year to 7 percent, according to the Federal Reserve. Small and regional banks face the greatest risk of severe losses from the loans.Parkus estimates total losses in investments backed by commercial property loans could be as high as $90 billion in coming years. He projects losses on commercial real estate loans held directly by banks could hit up to $150 billion.Q: What’s the government doing to help?A: Last month, the government opened part of the consumer-lending program known as the Term-Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to commercial real estate loans. The hope is that will boost the availability of loans, helping to prevent defaults and facilitate sales.Industry groups are now pushing for the government to extend this program through the end of next year.
As seen in MoneyandMarkets
by Nilus Mattive
In the Dividend Superstars issue that just went to press, I talked about FICO credit scores — the three-digit numbers that greatly determine how much money we can borrow, what interest rates we pay, and even how employers and landlords view us.
And I think this information is so critical to your financial life that I want to go over some of the details again here in Money and Markets today. Plus, I want to tell you why I think the system as it stands today is treating many responsible savers and borrowers unfairly in these credit-crunched times. That's something I didn't have room for in the latest Dividend Superstars newsletter.
So let's get into it ...
The Basics of Credit Scores
If you've been reading my columns and issues, you know I firmly believe you should pull your credit reports from the three major reporting agencies — Equifax, Experian, and Transunion — once a year. Doing so is now completely free because of the Fair Credit Reporting Act.
You can choose to pull all three reports at one time, or space them out throughout the year so you get a frequent look into your records.
Whatever way you choose to do it, look for errors, incorrect addresses, or any suspicious activity. If you have questions or corrections, don't hesitate to contact the agency. After all, your credit score affects the interest rates you pay on all kinds of loans.
To get those reports, visit www.annualcreditreport.com or call 1-877-322-8228. You can also request them by mail at: Annual Credit Report Service, P.O. Box 105281, Atlanta, GA 30348-5281.
Of course, when you pull those reports you WILL NOT see your actual credit score, which is derived from your reports.
The most commonly cited credit score number is known as your "FICO score," named after the firm that created it, Fair Isaac Co. The three-digit number falls between 300 and 850, with most people falling into the 600s or 700s.
Landlords and employers use credit scores as a way to get a sense of who you are, and as I noted, a FICO score greatly affects your borrowing ability. Fair Isaac says a borrower with a 580 might pay three percentage points more for a loan than someone with a 720!
The importance of your FICO is only getting more dramatic with the ongoing credit crunch. Some mortgage lenders have even been creating additional tiers above the 740-750 level, which has typically represented the general cutoff point for their "best" customers.
How a FICO Score Is Calculated, Along With Recent Important Changes ...
Fair Isaac's website gives the following general guidelines:
The rest of your score comes from a mix of other factors. And note that the exact algorithm behind the FICO score is a closely guarded secret that is continually being tweaked.
For example, in February of 2009 Fair Isaac made a number of important changes to the formula:
So How Can You Help Your Score (Or At Least Not Hurt It)?
Here are some of the basic steps you can take:
First, you should keep a few credit cards open for as long as possible, and with high available lines of credit even if you aren't really using them all that often.
It can make sense to close a couple newer cards, especially if they levy annual fees, but be careful that you'll still have a healthy amount of available credit and a long continuous history.
And don't let your few cards sit completely idle because lenders may unexpectedly close them, reduce your available credit, or stop reporting the activity to the credit agencies.
Second, you should not go around opening new cards just to get those initial 10 percent-off discounts or shopping for a home equity loan just to see what rate you can get. FICO tries to account for similar credit inquiry activity all falling within a small window (roughly 45 days) such as when you go mortgage shopping, but it still makes sense to limit your activity in this area.
Third, high balances are to be avoided. And if possible, you should spread out your activity among a few cards.
Fourth, don't forget about the simple steps like consistently paying bills on time and correcting errors on your credit reports, either.
Yet All This Begs One Last Question: Is the FICO System Even Fair in Today's Environment?
Think about some of the steps I just outlined: Keep cards open that you aren't really using ... have a "healthy mix of debt" ... and don't shop around for loans very often.
Do those make sense to you? Do those sound like steps a conservative consumer should take?
No way!
And yet these are apparently some of the best ways to get — and keep — a top credit score.
Consider this case: A hypothetical borrower has paid cash for his house and cars. He uses just one rewards card for all his purchases and pays off the balance in full every month, though he sometimes changes what card he uses based on the best rewards program at the time. And he frequently rolls his savings into CDs with whatever bank pays the highest rates.
Now, that sounds like someone I would loan money to! I mean, the guy has no debt and makes sound financial decisions.
Yet, as far as the FICO system is concerned, he doesn't have much of a credit history nor a smattering of loans. And all that credit card and CD shopping will also cause a lot of credit report pulls.
Oh, and get this: From what I've heard, the FICO system doesn't recognize patterns like regularly paying off large credit card balances. So in our hypothetical example, Mr. Conservative would also show a high debt-to-available credit balance.
Now, I'm sure this guy would still have a very decent score. And if he's cash rich and debt free, he probably wouldn't give a darn what Fair Isaac's system thought of him, either.
But what if he did decide to go shopping for a second home mortgage? Would the system — or the lenders who blindly rely on it — actually see him for the low-risk borrower he is?
My general impression is that FICO is best applied to the masses — people who live with all kinds of loans and spend the rest of their days faithfully paying off little bits here and there. And I guess that's exactly who lenders want to court, too.
Still, anyone who is responsible and doesn't fit "the mold" might be left calling FICO's creator "Unfair Isaac" when it's time to shop for a loan.
As Seen in Fisher Investments
July 2009
Please click HERE to read the document.
As seen in The Real Deal, New York Real Estate News 07/07/2009
The commercial real estate market in South Florida, already stung by a slew of economic factors that first battered the residential market, faces a long road to recovery. The commercial market slump casts a wide net in the region, and is likely to trigger distressed sales starting later this year and in early 2010 as owners face the double threat of shrinking revenue and the inability to refinance loans. And because unemployment is high — 9.8% in Miami-Dade County — people just aren’t spending money, putting the squeeze on retailers.Retail vacancy rates are rising across the region as consumer spending is down, individual borrowing options are diminished and tourism has dropped. Some markets such as Broward County’s malls and Miami-Dade’s specialty centers are near or above 10 percent vacancy, according to a retail report by the CoStar Group. Miami-Dade County’s overall retail vacancy rose from 4.1 percent at the end of 2008 to 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Palm Beach’s vacancy went from 6.2 percent to 6.9 percent in one quarter, and was up from 5.1 percent in early 2008. In nine months, Broward County’s retail vacancy rose to 6.4 percent from 4.6 percent. Gavin Campbell, founder and managing partner of Miami-based private investment firm Steelbridge Capital LLC, expects the numbers to get worse in the later part of this year.“The consumer in general is in the middle of long and painful de-leveraging,” Campbell said. “Unemployment is over 10 percent, driving consumer spending down, and people can’t use their homes as credit cards the way they used to. The net result is depressed spending.”Shopping centers anchored by large retail chains such as the now bankrupt Circuit City have seen the biggest increase in vacancies in all three South Florida counties. Closing these stores halts traffic into a center, pressuring smaller retail chains and mom and pop retailers, who soon can’t make ends meet. Declining international trade, from imports to foreign visitors’ retail spending, will contribute to the elimination of 7,000 trade, transportation and utilities jobs in Miami-Dade, according to a recent Marcus & Millichap report. Office is feeling the crunch also. Downsizing companies are leaving behind more and more open office space, from Palm Beach County’s financial services hubs to Brickell, where the addition of new projects this summer will add to the glut of unfilled office space. Distressed commercial sales have been rare, but Campbell expects that to change in 2010 and 2011.“We’ll see some of that in the back half of this year or next year,” Campbell said. “I haven’t seen many distressed sales, but what happened with General Growth bankruptcy shows the distress that is out there.”Commercial properties are the next market to get hit by the credit crunch as investors’ revenues shrink and a batch of commercial loans expire in 2010, 2011 and 2012. “In the best case scenario the strong owners will continue to tread water,” said Charles Foschini, vice chairman at CB Richard Ellis in Miami. “Buildings from AAA office all the way down are going to be impacted.”Sinking vacancy rates will in turn push sale prices even lower. “If there is a high vacancy rate in a building, it’s hard for a buyer to get financing, so that depresses the value further. Investors will demand a higher return.”South Florida retail has been hit by the economic downturn and drop in consumer spending, but looks relatively healthy compared to other Florida locales such as Naples, said Greg Masin, senior director of Cushman & Wakefield’s retail services.Masin thinks local vacancy rates won’t go much higher. He described an environment where landlords drop leasing rates and new retailers enter the market. The combination keeps the market afloat as retailers move in to take advantage of lower rents.“Rents have been on an uphill run in South Florida for 15 years and some people were priced out of the market,” Masin said. “A 20 percent cut in rent may be enough to push a business owner. You have the European retailer who wants to open a shop, and he wants to be in Miami.”
Author: Roger Drouin
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As seen on the Miami Herald Real Estate Web Page
With dark windows dulling Miami's twinkling skyline, newly built condo towers may look ghostly. But that's changing as the downtown area quickly fills up with flesh-and-blood residents.
Although condo sales remain sluggish, renters are marching in to help lighten things up. Sales are picking up, too.
An occupancy report released Wednesday, commissioned by the Miami Downtown Development Authority, found that 62 percent of the new condos built since 2003 are, in fact, inhabited by humans.
What's selling: good deals.
In the past two weeks at Brickell on the River South, 40 new sales contracts have been signed, thanks to aggressively reduced pricing by the developer.
''Come into the sales offices and see the movement on a daily basis of people trying to find out what is available to buy or to rent,'' said Andres Asion, principal broker for the Miami Real Estate Group. ``People are tired of commuting into the heart of the city.''
Renters are driving the change.
Although the rental-to-sales ratio is now 50-50, an average of 280 new leases were drawn up per month on new units, compared with an average 50 monthly sales in the last year, according to the report.
Thanks to downwardly spiraling prices, sales numbers have improved recently to an average of 70 per month, though financing hurdles are still tamping down otherwise robust demand, the report noted.
While some may point to the rental trend as evidence developers overshot their estimates of demand and put up far too many buildings, Alyce Robertson, executive director of the development authority, said it makes little difference from an economic development standpoint.
Whether people rent or own, they need and demand more shops, banks, bars and restaurants in the area.
Robertson said the Downtown Development Authority, a quasi-governmental agency that promotes the area, will soon sell the area to prospective retailers based on the results of the occupancy report.
``The people who haven't been to downtown recently, you really have to come and see because it's really a different place.''
In the midst of one of the worst housing blowouts in state history, the occupancy report sheds some positive light on what otherwise is still a fairly grim situation in the condo market.
Prices continue to drop and rising foreclosures are financially disabling many condo associations. Also, the sector is dealing with a vast oversupply of inventory -- units for sale from developers, owners and banks.
As of May, developers still held 38 percent of completed units -- or about 8,300 of 21,616 completed. They are being forced to rent or sell at steep discounts to fend off lenders seeking construction loan payoffs. An additional 1,333 units will be delivered to market later this year.
Competition from other parts of town also looms large. In Miami-Dade County, 56 percent of all properties for sale are either condos or townhomes, according to the Multiple Listing Service.
The bulk of those units are in Aventura, North Miami Beach and Sunny Isles Beach, with downtown Miami ranking second by a fraction. Developers typically do not list unsold units in the MLS.
What's more, condos and townhomes represent 71 percent of all rental listings.
Craig Werley, president of Focus Real Estate Advisors in Coral Gables, who authored the study with Miami-based Goodkin Consulting, said that even though people are moving in, that doesn't mean the market is healthy. But it does point to a recovery that may come sooner than what many people think.
Based on the current absorption rate and the likelihood of further price declines, Werley said healthy occupancy rates of 95 to 98 percent could be seen in as little as three years.
''There is an inflow, and while there will be some further discounting of prices that will undoubtedly take place with the existing inventory,'' Werley said, ``there is a demand for this affordable product.''
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